A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
